Billet set a new high this year, beware of the new round of roller coaster market!

Driven by the strong period screw, as well as better delivery and other factors, the billet price continued to pull up this week, boosting the market, manufacturers have a better mentality.Last night, the spiral shell strengthened again, the stock continued to pull up, today has reached a new high for the year.

Today's market

1. After the stable trading of Narrow-band of Tang Dynasty, the price can be followed up by 10 on the plate. Some manufacturers clear and produce daily production, and some high positions are weak;Series 285-355 naked spot 3590-3620 (mainstream 3595) Hongxing 3600 futures 3555-3595.This period of screw shock upward, plus billet continued to rise 10, the factory price and cost end has support, merchants are not willing to adjust the price is not strong, generally weak shipping performance.

2. Tangshan type price mainstream tends to be stable, Angle zhengfeng 5#3830 stable;Stable groove Ruixing 8-14#3790;Gongxiangtai 14#3790 stable.The cost end continued to rise slightly, but the downstream demand follow-up was slow, the market wait-and-see sentiment increased, and the transaction of high resources did not improve significantly;

3. The price of pipes in Tangshan rises steadily. Welded pipes are 4110, naked pipes with galvanized strips are 3940-3950, and naked pipes with shelves are 3700-3730 up 10.

4. Tangshan mainstream steel mill billet up 10 yuan to 3510 yuan, billet straight hair transaction is ok, warehouse spot report 3580 yuan including tax, rolling mills have resumed production, billet demand recovery, together with the period screw holding red shock, traders price sentiment is strong, the market transaction is concentrated in the low.

Long - space factor analysis

[Good] :

1. Coke has been rising for nearly three months, with a tiring increase of 300. Now the supply is still tight, and the black is supported;

2. Billet inventory is at the low level in the year, and the manufacturer is willing to offer price obviously, so price locking operation is common this year;

3. The inventory of the five varieties decreases continuously and the inventory pressure decreases gradually, indicating that the demand side also recovers before the coming of winter;

4. The plans for autumn and winter production restriction in various regions have been gradually introduced, with fair market confidence.

【 Negative 】 :

1. The GLOBAL environment is unstable due to the US election;

2. As winter approaches, the downstream starts will gradually shrink and become empty in the long term.

Billet trend overview

As can be seen from the figure, except for 2018, the billet price of 2017/2019 has increased to different degrees after November 6.Xiaobian thinks 2020 is no exception, just today, billet prices have reached the year's high.At present, the stock of billet is at a low level in the year. With the continuous resumption of rolling mills, the demand for billet gradually recovers, and traders have a strong sentiment of price reduction. Therefore, the operation may be stronger in the short term, but the range will not be too large, about 10-20.

We will profile in the north and south of the price and billet price trend over the years to compare it is not difficult to find that whether it is the north or the south, the price is similar to the billet price trend, especially the northern profile price.According to this data statistics, we can think of a week after the price should also be driven up with the billet price stimulus and actively follow up.However, as the weather has turned cold in the north, the market will soon celebrate the traditional consumption off-season, the period is relatively weak demand for construction steel, and at present due to the steel price is relatively high, so the downstream wait-and-see mood, to avoid risks, to select rational inventory, clinch a deal the overall situation is not very handsome, there seems to be no city.The chart below shows the changes in the listing prices of major profile mills this week.

At 10 o 'clock today, Tangshan independent hot rolling enterprises to lift the production limit, the section steel operating rate picked up to the high, the current price high finishing: in addition, according to the Hebei Province air quality forecast information release system, it is estimated that Tangshan 9-11 air pollution index reached moderate pollution above, or again strictly control the production limit.

Profit space of steel mill

As can be seen from the figure, although affected by the epidemic today, but the steel side is still relatively strong.2019 steel mill price profit peak in early September, the lowest point in late November;So far in 2020, the highest point has been in early March and the lowest in early June.Through two years of price earnings trend line path, it can be seen that this year earnings loss than last year in advance.And it is not difficult to infer the state of the rise and fall of the price from the profit situation.In other words, in the next few days, steel prices will remain high.But can not rule out the possibility of fall, because, after all, winter is approaching, downstream starts will gradually shrink, long - term empty.

Market inventory status

According to relevant data statistics, the current steel varieties of the national inventory are in a state of decline.This to each breed price had certain support action.

Summary: in recent days, the snail pulls up strongly, driving the billet price to move up constantly, and the support at the cost end is strong!Strong!Strong!At present, billet inventory is at a relatively low level. With the continuous resumption of rolling mills, billet demand is gradually picking up, and traders are in a strong mood of price raising. Although there will not be a sharp rise in a short time, there is still a chance of a small rise.Considering that November is gradually entering the traditional off-season of consumption, the demand for construction steel is slowly weakening at this time, and the period has not yet entered the winter storage period, and steel prices remain high.Does the seller say they can't sell the goods?Although there is strong support in the short term, but the later cautious roller coaster market, fasten the safety belt.