Steel: Gold nine extruded foam, silver ten hope to reignite

Friday night ore and hot coil futures slightly recovered, some people think that the fall to the point of bottom, so the stage of the bearish whether out, October can usher in a rebound?I'm going to share some of my thoughts.

The following is the spot market personnel sentiment survey, it appears that industrial customers to the pre-holiday stocking demand or have great expectations, see consolidation and bullish ratio is higher, bearish general.

The supply and demand structure

At present, high production is the core contradiction, hot roll production and inventory are still increasing, see the Japanese steel and other post-settlement policy is evident.Recent screw repair smooth, the next few months also mainly to see the trend of thread, hot coil passive follow.September demand does not conform to the expected or thread does not exceed the original, but learn from large construction project contractors and infrastructure vendors in October there will be a money order local projects, superposition of real estate enterprises in the near future funding pressure rush out and selling money out before the end of the cage, and thread production and inventory in the near future has been indeed, stage is now set in solution set, complete set of nodes in the 10 months before delivery, because the current long receiving will is weak, so the disk sheet will be concentrated in 10 months ping, is set to take this solution set, there will be looking forward to the demand of the thread at the end of October.

Spreads to

The cold and hot price difference takes the lead, the winch difference is small, and the winch difference is stable.Cold rolling is strong against the drop, so the difference between cold and heat remains high, according to the previous year usually From September to October is the biggest month of cold and heat difference.However, as for the recent drop in pickling prices, whether this is a signal of a drop in cold product prices remains to be verified.And the steel mills will still be very strong.In addition, it is learned that wuxi and Shanghai have received a batch of import rolls, while the last batch of imported materials in Lecong region should arrive in October, and there is no replenishment of imported materials later.

Iron ore

Supply of iron ore supply and demand relations changes gradually clear, stepwise regression, the port gradually to normal, the current demand is still strong, but in the steel mills are not optimistic situation and heating season have their expected earnings, under the influence of poor demand forecast, port stocks climbed to more than 116 million tons again this week, especially PB powder inventory quickly recovered, inventory pressure gradually prominent, the iron ore supply and demand pattern err expected stronger.

Together: the steel prices in the "golden nine" sharply downward has released the risk well, and steel mills to leak can reduce the pressure on the supply, combined with the end demand increment, rebar fundamentals will marginal positive, carefully before operation is given priority to, focused on tracking their execution, and thermal volume production and inventory is on the increase, the recent volume screw repair is smooth, also basically see the shape of the screw thread in the next few months, hot roll of passive follow.