Steel billet lock price 3300!Futures fell across the board!How much more can steel prices fall before the New Year?

The pace of the spring is getting closer and closer, the steel market is getting thinner and thinner!Many businesses focus on the market is no longer the volatility.It is worth noting that the price of tangshan pufang billet, which fluctuates closely with that of finished materials, is reduced by 30 to 3300 yuan/ton today, and the lock price is up to January 30, which also means that the fluctuation of steel price is limited, and the raw material end including billet has limited operating space.Some businesses have entered the holiday mode, leave in advance!

First, let's see if today's price moves have any "surprises"!

Spot quote sentiment will usually be affected by the futures, from the intraday spiral fluctuations, the black system overall downward, the decline of the material is greater than the raw material.Iron ore fell 2.5 to 657, coke fell 34.5 to 1848, and coking coal fell 0.5 to 1209.Overall, steel futures before the Spring Festival will remain weak shock.

Steel spot quotation:

Before the Spring Festival, only the last complete trading week, the construction site in the north into a complete shutdown phase, the construction site in the south is also about to close, the volume is low, traders no longer focus on the shipment, procurement has entered the end, the majority of the various types of prices stabilized.

"Building materials"

Rebar prices in 24 major markets across the country were mostly stable, with individual prices rising and falling by 10-20, 20mm HRB400E average price of 3,817 yuan/ton.

"Coils"

The average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coil in 24 major markets is 3843 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day.

the plate

China's main market prices are mostly stable, a few up and down 10-40, 23 major markets in the country 14-20mm average price 3832 yuan/ton, 2 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day.

Price fluctuation of raw materials:

In addition to the billet 30 lock price, iron ore, coke and other raw materials prices relatively strong.

Iron ore: prices for imported mines rose in December, with the iron ore price index up 13.7 points, or 4.29%, from the previous month, according to cisa data.The first quarter is usually a slack season for iron ore supply, and the volume of shipments from outside mines is at the low level of the year. Steel mills have provided some support for iron ore prices under the replenishment demand. However, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, terminal demand will decline, and replenishment demand will gradually decrease.

Coke: affected by the reform on the supply side of coking industry, the industry cut capacity and reduced output and supply. Coke has been promoted for four rounds and stabilized for a short time.According to the 2020 industrial cutting capacity plan, as the "year to win the battle for blue skies", the supply side will continue to be affected by the elimination of backward production capacity.Relevant data show that in 2020, shanxi plans to withdraw more than 15 million tons of production capacity for the whole year and more than 130 million tons of production capacity during the 13th five-year plan period.In addition, cisa's recent statement shows that environmental pressure will continue to increase, while the coking industry is expected to pull out of the downturn as steel production increases and demand forces.

Scrap: judging from the price fluctuation in January, the price of fine charge in tangshan area is 2660 to 2790 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton higher than the end of last month;Zhangjiagang fine charge prices of 2,480 to 2,540 yuan/ton, the same as the end of last month.Generally speaking, there is little change. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, short-process steel mills have entered the maintenance and shutdown period, and scrap steel prices have stabilized.

Recently, cisa predicted that China's steel demand growth in 2020 will slow, capacity release.Steel demand is likely to be 890m tonnes, up 2 per cent year on year, compared with the wsa's previous estimate of 1 per cent.At the same time, domestic steel production capacity is at its peak, mainly because the steel industry is in a new round of adjustment under the influence of the policy of "cutting capacity" in the past few years.Previously, we repeatedly mentioned the problem of overcapacity in the article analyzing the development trend of the steel industry in 2020. From the perspective of capacity replacement scale, 2020, especially the second half of the year, will be a period of concentrated production. Under the background of macroeconomic pressure, the release of capacity is expected to exceed the growth rate of demand, and steel prices may move down as a whole.It is worth mentioning that the cisa chief gao sangmyung pointed out that the 2020 production capacity release fast, the iron ore price rises sharply, environmental protection pressure and other issues will continue.

This week, the steel market will enter the state of half-rest, winter storage is also entering the end stage, the current macro focus will focus on the signing of the first phase of the agreement between China and the United States and the release of macro data on the 17th, but for the market impact is limited.At present, the focus of merchants is not the fluctuation of market, whether futures or spot, the departure of funds, the shutdown of the downstream site means the relative stagnation of steel prices, prices of various varieties stabilized, a small drop, 10-50.