Multiple institutions forecast: infrastructure investment picked up in June!Overall economic stability

On July 8, the economic information daily ran a report titled "multi-agency forecast: infrastructure investment picked up in June."The national bureau of statistics will release data on June 15, the article said.The economy was stable overall in June, according to multiple forecasts.Among them, industrial production will show improvement, a small rebound in industrial profits.Infrastructure investment growth will pick up somewhat under the support of early financing improvement and special debt as project capital.The retail sales growth of consumer goods may fluctuate slightly due to the fading of the dislocation during the May Day holiday, but car sales continued to pick up in June, supporting the overall retail sales growth of consumer goods.

On industrial production, lian ping, chief economist at bank of communications, said industrial output rebounded from a low level in June and industrial production improved in the short term.Since June, the output of key steel enterprises has increased, and the daily coal consumption of six major power generation groups has increased.Since industrial output growth fell by 0.8 percentage points in June last year, the base figure is significantly lower, and growth in the same period this year is likely to rebound to 5.7% as low as possible.After the second quarter, the implementation of tax cuts for the manufacturing sector, which will help boost market confidence.

"Despite the slowdown in industrial production and prices in May, industrial profits achieved positive growth, mainly due to tax cuts and fee cuts. Driven by tax cuts and fee cuts, industrial profits are expected to rebound slightly in June."Everbright securities chief macro analyst zhang wenlang said.

In terms of investment, qin tai, senior macro analyst at shen wanhongyuan, thinks the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment may pick up by 0.3 percentage points to around 5.9% in June.Among them, the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) from January to June rebounded to about 4.5%, which is expected to be further improved in the future.Li chao, chief macro researcher at huatai securities, said that the number of projects approved by the national development and reform commission has increased significantly compared with the same period last year.Special bonds of local governments have also secured sources of capital for infrastructure investment."On the whole, we expect infrastructure investment to grow at a steady pace in the second and third quarters, as reserve projects continue to be launched and the base figure declines in the same period last year."

Even ping also believes that the local special bonds policy is relaxed, allowing special bonds as eligible capital for major projects, infrastructure investment growth is expected to gradually pick up in the future.In addition, the massive tax cuts will help manufacturers improve their operations, and industrial companies' profit growth picked up in May, which may help stabilize manufacturing investment in the future, lian said.

Consumption growth could fluctuate slightly.Zhang wenlang believes that the misplaced and prolonged May Day holiday helped social consumption rebound to 8.6% year-on-year in May. After this factor subsided, social consumption may slow down to 8.3% year-on-year in June.However, qin tai said he expected the nominal and real growth rates to rise to 9.0% and 6.8% respectively in June, up 0.4 percentage points from may.

In the case of unstable external demand, the importance of domestic demand is more prominent.Therefore, more effective policies to stabilize the economy are needed."In terms of all kinds of demand, consumption is a slow variable, while manufacturing investment in investment is determined by terminal demand, infrastructure investment, real estate investment and export, and real estate investment is constrained by housing price, so it is difficult to adjust the control policies.Therefore, infrastructure investment is the most important way to stabilize the economy in the short term."Southwest securities macro analyst Yang yewei said.