"Silver ten" steel price why drop?


Since October, the domestic steel market is not out of the "silver ten" optimistic, but clearly shaken, fell occurred on the steel futures, spot market is down sharply, according to monitoring data show that as of October 29, rebar futures closing price 4646 yuan/ton, the end of September fell 1060 yuan/ton, or 18.6%.Hot rolled coil futures closed at 5003 yuan/ton, down 710 yuan/ton from the end of September, down 12.4%;Spot market, three rebar price 5354 yuan/ton, compared with the end of September down 548 yuan/ton, 9.3%;Hot rolled coil price of 5,518 yuan/ton, compared with the end of September 371 yuan/ton, down 6.3%.

October this is the traditional demand season, in the production limit continues, the fundamentals of the steel market is expected to improve, why the steel price has fallen deeply, there are the following reasons:

First, the international steel market peaked back, the formation of the domestic market driven.As overseas steel production quickly recover, get repair supply gap, at the same time, the global economic recovery slowed, steel demand rapid expansion phase, global steel demand and supply tensions ease, the global steel market trend shocks callback, especially European plank market has been falling for four months, European plank market drop in October,At the same time, some varieties of the American market also appeared back.According to the monitoring data, in October, the European Union steel mill hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil, hot galvanized, medium plate prices respectively compared with the end of September down $80, $145, $90 and $80, the United States Midwest steel hot coil prices also compared to the end of September down $50.

Second, since mid-October international commodities have also fallen, causing a drag on the steel market.Base metal futures prices on the London Metal Exchange have fallen across the board since mid-October. On Oct. 28, three-month aluminum closed at $2,748 a ton, down $427, or 13.4%, from its Oct. 15 peak.Three-month copper closed at $9,640 a tonne, down $575, or 5.6 per cent, from its October 15 peak.On the spot side, London copper settled at $9,860 / mt, down $792 / mt from its October 19 high.Lal settled at $2,721 a tonne, down $459 from its October 18 peak.

Third, "silver ten" demand release less than expected, rising prices failed to cash.At present, the commercial housing sales area has for three consecutive months of negative growth, the real estate development enterprises purchase area continues to decline, compared to the same land in property sales, construction, construction, land purchase monthly growth is sustained negative growth, such as real estate investment obvious atrophy, and infrastructure investment monthly growth is also presented for 5 months of negative growth, the weak construction factors, such as electricity,"Silver ten" construction steel demand performance is not expected, the transaction did not appear volume.According to the survey data, the average daily turnover of Beijing building materials market in October was 6,763 tons, 2,582 tons less than September, and 3,262 tons less than the same period last year.At the same time, the downstream manufacturing industry with steel product output decreased year on year, but also the formation of plate demand weakened.

Fourth, the resumption of steel production in some areas has disturbed the market.With the resumption of production in Jiangsu, Guangdong and Guangxi steel enterprises, the market for a certain loosening of production expectations, blast furnace operating rate has also picked up.According to the survey data, on October 22, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises in China was 76.6%, up 0.8 percentage points from the low point on October 9.

Fifth, under the guidance of supply and price stability, the black futures market fell together.Since mid-October, the National Development and Reform Commission has intervened in coal prices, the State Regular Committee has cracked down on speculation in the coal market in accordance with the law, and the CSRC has also resolutely suppressed excessive speculation and put an end to malicious speculation by capital.Stage level panic mood, coking coal, coke, iron ore fell, making the cost of the disk collapse, drive thread and hot coil futures also appeared a large drop, and then drive steel spot further down.

November is coming, from the demand side, the northern region gradually into winter, building materials demand will gradually weaken;From the supply side, the nationwide production restrictions continue, key areas in autumn and winter air pollution control accelerated, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and surrounding areas of the implementation of the iron and steel industry off-peak production, further restrict the release of steel output, the market continues to show a weak pattern of supply and demand;And the strength of the coke spot prices make the cost of support is still strong, but in the period of downward, disk support cost down, as well as steel mills to leak under the weakening trend of demand for raw materials, iron ore, coke prices downward probability increases late, steel spot costs will tend to fall, the domestic steel market is expected to November will be weaker shocks pattern.