Long - short factors interwoven in March iron ore prices or high volatility

Iron ore prices all the way up last month after high shock.Because of the macro picture, the US signed the economic stimulus bill.At the same time, the United States and other countries have been vaccinated, the turning point of the new epidemic has gradually emerged, and economic recovery is expected to strengthen.In addition, the recent general rise of commodities, non-ferrous metals, crude oil and other commodity prices hit a new high stage to drive up the black system.Fundamentally, during the Spring Festival, the arrival of foreign ore is low, coupled with the first half of the year, such as the Australia and Pakistan cyclone extreme weather may affect iron ore shipments, iron ore supply concerns continue to drive prices higher.

In February, iron ore futures prices were generally shaken and strengthened. Under the drive of steel mills' replenishment before the Spring Festival, the spot price of mainstream fine ore ports in February rose by about 75 yuan/ton on a monthly basis at the end of January.

On the demand side, according to the SMM survey, domestic steel enterprises' blast furnace utilization rate rose by 0.2% to 87.1% from the end of January, an increase of 3.2% compared with the same period last year.In addition, the production of molten iron in March is expected to pick up gradually, and the demand side will continue to provide support for the price of raw materials.

On the supply side, the average outbound volume for the last two phases from Australia remained at 16.6 million tons, while the average outbound volume for the last six phases from Brazil remained at 6.3 million tons.Although the port inventory increased after the Spring Festival holiday, there was still a need to purchase steel after the temporary restocking of steel mills after the holiday. The port inventory was difficult to see continuous accumulation in the short term, which also provided strong support for the mine price.

However, considering the rebound from the low of the US dollar index, bearish commodity prices, and the proximity of the NPC and CPPCC, the impact of environmental protection production limit disturbance on the import mine prices in March intensified, and the overall price in March may fluctuate at a high level.